Who’ll win the Rugby World Cup? The Bob Dwyer method

Bob Dwyer, the Rugby World Cup winning coach, once said that to win the Rugby World Cup your team needs to have 5 players who would be in the World 15. So I thought I’d pick a World 15 and see which teams are best equipped to win the Rugby World Cup 2015.

First up Rugby Reg (@RugbyReg on twitter) ruined this whole piece by pointing out that Bob actually said that by the time you win it you will have 5 players who would be in the World 15. So that destroys the whole premise for this piece but why let a little fact like that get in the way of a good idea?

So here is my World 15:

1. Ayerza – Argentina
2. du Plessis – South Africa
3. Cole – England
4. Etzebeth – South Africa
5. Retallick – New Zealand
6. Dusautoir – France
7. McCaw – New Zealand
8. Read – New Zealand
9. Smith – New Zealand
10. Sexton – Ireland
11. Savea – New Zealand
12. Nonu – New Zealand
13. Kuridrani – Australia
14. North – Wales
15. Folau – Australia

Clearly in some positions it’s less clear-cut than others, it’s hard to leave out a great player like Ben Smith and Vermeulen has been great at 8 for South Africa but I’m only allowed 15 players and that’s how it landed.

That means the numbers are:

• New Zealand – 6
• South Africa – 2
• Australia – 2
• France – 1
• England – 1
• Ireland -1
• Wales – 1
• Argentina – 1

So using the Bob Dwyer method New Zealand are going to win and no one else is really in with a chance.

I was going to leave it there but it kind of feels a bit flat, so let’s remove the All Blacks and look at a rest of the world 15 and see where that leaves us:

1. Ayerza – Argentina
2. du Plessis – South Africa
3. Cole – England
4. Etzebeth – South Africa
5. Lawes – England
6. Dusautoir – France
7. Louw – South Africa
8. Vermeulen – South Africa
9. Murray – Ireland
10. Sexton – Ireland
11. Bowe – Ireland
12. Roberts – Wales
13. Kuridrani – Australia
14. North – Wales
15. Folau – Australia

So the numbers change to:

• South Africa – 4
• Ireland – 3
• Australia – 2
• England – 2
• Wales – 2
• France – 1
• Argentina – 1

There is no clear second favourite with South Africa slightly a head of Ireland. Then there is a chasing pack that I think includes all the teams that people are suggesting can win the tournament.

So there you go the virtual Bob Dwyer calculator would have New Zealand outstanding favourite with South Africa and Ireland the most likely to cause an upset.